From what I can tell, and of course please correct me if I'm wrong, the way Uber and Lyft's surge pricing works is:
1. The app's algorithm determines the expected demand for any given area based on historical data, and/or
2. reacts to unexpected, sudden increases in ride requests for that area, and
3. compares that to the number of available drivers in the area
If there's a shortage of drivers, a surge happens. In my experience, you can sometimes predict a surge in an area that you are very familiar with by knowing when the busy times are and observing a shortage of drivers in the area based on the pattern and content of the direct and trip-radar pings that you see coming over the app.
I noticed this recently in my regular driving area when we had a big snowstorm about a month ago on a weeknight. I went out Uber driving and I could immediately tell that most of the other Uber drivers had elected to stay home because the pings were coming at me from all over the place. Because of the tremendous surge pricing, I was able to make almost $200 in 4 1/2 hours, all with short rides (six miles or less, including pickup).
Around 10 p.m., the surges died out, so I went home. About 10:15, as I was getting ready to go to bed, I looked at the app and in my area was $35 surge. I'm fairly certain what had happened. My area has a large concentration of restaurants that close at 10 p.m. Because the app was expecting a surge in service industry workers finishing work and going home, and because there were no longer any drivers in the area because I had clocked-out, it had suddenly caused a major surge zone to happen.
If true, I think it's possible to create your own surges. If you see a shortage of drivers in an area that you know is about to get busier, you may be able to create a surge by driving to the area and logging-off the app for about 10 minutes or so. Keep watching the app, then log back in after the surge zone materializes. I have not been able to test this theory yet, but I'm wondering if anyone here has tried it?
1. The app's algorithm determines the expected demand for any given area based on historical data, and/or
2. reacts to unexpected, sudden increases in ride requests for that area, and
3. compares that to the number of available drivers in the area
If there's a shortage of drivers, a surge happens. In my experience, you can sometimes predict a surge in an area that you are very familiar with by knowing when the busy times are and observing a shortage of drivers in the area based on the pattern and content of the direct and trip-radar pings that you see coming over the app.
I noticed this recently in my regular driving area when we had a big snowstorm about a month ago on a weeknight. I went out Uber driving and I could immediately tell that most of the other Uber drivers had elected to stay home because the pings were coming at me from all over the place. Because of the tremendous surge pricing, I was able to make almost $200 in 4 1/2 hours, all with short rides (six miles or less, including pickup).
Around 10 p.m., the surges died out, so I went home. About 10:15, as I was getting ready to go to bed, I looked at the app and in my area was $35 surge. I'm fairly certain what had happened. My area has a large concentration of restaurants that close at 10 p.m. Because the app was expecting a surge in service industry workers finishing work and going home, and because there were no longer any drivers in the area because I had clocked-out, it had suddenly caused a major surge zone to happen.
If true, I think it's possible to create your own surges. If you see a shortage of drivers in an area that you know is about to get busier, you may be able to create a surge by driving to the area and logging-off the app for about 10 minutes or so. Keep watching the app, then log back in after the surge zone materializes. I have not been able to test this theory yet, but I'm wondering if anyone here has tried it?