In my experience, surges at SFO only happen when Uber and Lyft get desperate enough. It feels like it's always artificially suppressed. And in the rare times it happens, it ends so quick it's gone by the time the queue of a few drivers gets to you.
One tell tale sign might be the area around SFO that often looks like it's surging on Uber... like it's trying to lure some unsuspecting newbies to get closer and kill any hope for an SFO surge.
But what's worse than the lack of surge is the diabolical arrangement between Uber/Lyft and the Airport Authority that deprives drivers of due process rights in the processing of citations. There should be a class action lawsuit against those three parties. Getting citations 3 months after the fact, automatically deducted from your pay, with insufficient clues given as to what it's for, with no photo evidence or specific violation provided, and no way to dispute it (Uber's SFO dispute website doesn't help you dispute shit), ensures SFO Authorities keep reeling in cash from destitute drivers. What does Uber/Lyft care? They signed away our rights because they're not in it for drivers. When a driver has no opportunity to take corrective actions with timely delivery of citations, and information on specific rule violated, I fail to see how this isn't unconstitutional.
I would advise new drivers to stay clear of SFO until you have enough cash to absorb a slew of surprise tickets in future months.