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Investors who dumped Uber stock last week are idiots: Here's what's really going on.

4.8K views 56 replies 32 participants last post by  dirtylee  
#1 ·

Jim Edwards

Dara Khosrowshahi


Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi. Getty

Opinion banner

  • Uber stock took an 8% dip last week.
  • CEO Dara Khosrowshahi complained that people are still asking, "can Uber ever be profitable?"
  • Uber didn't "lose" $5.2 billion in Q2, as the headlines suggested.
  • In fact, it added $5.3 billion in cash. Uber's cash on hand went up to $11.7 billion.
  • The "loss" was a non-cash technicality, not an actual loss of cash.
  • The company makes money hand over fist.
  • Investors may have misunderstood Uber because of its sheer size. It's actually behaving like an early-stage tech startup - albeit on a vast scale - by investing in its own growth using expenses it can rein in later.

Uber stock dipped 8% last week after the company recorded a larger than expected net loss, of $5.2 billion. It added to the impression that Uber is simply burning cash, subsidising cheap taxi rides to grab market share, with no real idea of how to turn itself into a sustainable, profitable business.
"I think that there's a meme around which is, can Uber ever be profitable? I certainly heard that that meme along with others," CEO Dara Khosrowshahi told analysts on the earnings call last week.
In fact, Uber didn't lose any money at all. It is more likely the case that some investors misunderstood the nature of the loss: It was a paper write-off, not an actual loss of cash.

In fact, Uber grew its cash on hand by $5.3 billion in Q2, from $6.4 billion at the end of last year, to $11.7 billion by the end of Q2.
The "loss" was mostly a non-cash stock-based compensation expense of $3.9 billion. Issuing stock compensation to employees costs the company next to nothing; accounting rules require it to be written up as an expense only so that investors have an accurate idea of the value of newly issued stock being given out as compensation. No money actually leaves Uber's coffers.

Uber


Does this look like a struggling company to you? Uber
Take a look at Uber's cashflow statement: The net loss from operations was just $1.6 billion. That's a lot of money but it's not $5 billion! Uber could easily afford that loss because it took in about $8 billion from the proceeds of its IPO, the cashflow statement says.

In other words, this company isn't losing money. It's the opposite. It's a cash-printing machine:
  • Gross bookings were up 31% to nearly $16 billion.
  • Revenue was up 14% to $3.2 billion.
  • Riders increased 30% to 99 million.
It's difficult to look at those numbers and conclude that Uber is dysfunctional.
Uber did increase its various operational expenses, such as marketing, R&D, and salaries & admin costs. But those are all costs that Uber can control, and cut in the future if need be. For now, the company is investing in its own growth.
In other words, this company is still behaving like an "early stage" tech startup - albeit on a vast scale.

This company has a LONG way to go before it tops out. (Think about Facebook when it reached 1 billion people and everyone thought Facebook would slow down.) Investors are idiots for selling their stock right now.

This is an opinion column. The thoughts expressed are those of the author(s).
 
#2 · (Edited)
Revenue increase was only 14% vs last years same 1/4 compared to Lyft at 90%.. Lyft is the smaller co, so they can obviously increase at a faster pace .
Amzn increases at close to 20% over the last few years ..thus the reward in stock movement
Rev does not increase at a higher rate, stock does not move. EPS . Either you need EPS increase at high rate or rev.
FB - very good buy, if Twitter in chief does not tweet in the next 12 mos.?
Actually I was wrong, rev increase is close to 30% compared to last year same quarter, 14 % over last quarter , so Author maybe correct ?but it did go down from 50% from 2017 to 2018 same quarter. So 50% increase down to 30%. So next year, can they maintain 30% rev growth or does it go down to 20%?
Rev needs to increase in the US and Canada .outside rev increase will not matter much.
It is like FB
FB users in the US and Canada spend 7-8 times more than Africa or Asia?
 
#8 · (Edited)
wall street is still polishing this turd.

So they can Dump it on Retirement funds.

Less they get stuck with the Loss.

" investment game of "Hot Potato"


Jim Edwards

Dara Khosrowshahi


Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi. Getty

Opinion banner

  • Uber stock took an 8% dip last week.
  • CEO Dara Khosrowshahi complained that people are still asking, "can Uber ever be profitable?"
  • Uber didn't "lose" $5.2 billion in Q2, as the headlines suggested.
  • In fact, it added $5.3 billion in cash. Uber's cash on hand went up to $11.7 billion.
  • The "loss" was a non-cash technicality, not an actual loss of cash.
  • The company makes money hand over fist.
  • Investors may have misunderstood Uber because of its sheer size. It's actually behaving like an early-stage tech startup - albeit on a vast scale - by investing in its own growth using expenses it can rein in later.

Uber stock dipped 8% last week after the company recorded a larger than expected net loss, of $5.2 billion. It added to the impression that Uber is simply burning cash, subsidising cheap taxi rides to grab market share, with no real idea of how to turn itself into a sustainable, profitable business.
"I think that there's a meme around which is, can Uber ever be profitable? I certainly heard that that meme along with others," CEO Dara Khosrowshahi told analysts on the earnings call last week.
In fact, Uber didn't lose any money at all. It is more likely the case that some investors misunderstood the nature of the loss: It was a paper write-off, not an actual loss of cash.

In fact, Uber grew its cash on hand by $5.3 billion in Q2, from $6.4 billion at the end of last year, to $11.7 billion by the end of Q2.
The "loss" was mostly a non-cash stock-based compensation expense of $3.9 billion. Issuing stock compensation to employees costs the company next to nothing; accounting rules require it to be written up as an expense only so that investors have an accurate idea of the value of newly issued stock being given out as compensation. No money actually leaves Uber's coffers.

Uber


Does this look like a struggling company to you? Uber
Take a look at Uber's cashflow statement: The net loss from operations was just $1.6 billion. That's a lot of money but it's not $5 billion! Uber could easily afford that loss because it took in about $8 billion from the proceeds of its IPO, the cashflow statement says.

In other words, this company isn't losing money. It's the opposite. It's a cash-printing machine:
  • Gross bookings were up 31% to nearly $16 billion.
  • Revenue was up 14% to $3.2 billion.
  • Riders increased 30% to 99 million.
It's difficult to look at those numbers and conclude that Uber is dysfunctional.
Uber did increase its various operational expenses, such as marketing, R&D, and salaries & admin costs. But those are all costs that Uber can control, and cut in the future if need be. For now, the company is investing in its own growth.
In other words, this company is still behaving like an "early stage" tech startup - albeit on a vast scale.

This company has a LONG way to go before it tops out. (Think about Facebook when it reached 1 billion people and everyone thought Facebook would slow down.) Investors are idiots for selling their stock right now.

This is an opinion column. The thoughts expressed are those of the author(s).
Sounds like
Screenshot_2019-08-10-13-28-02.png
they are scrambling " earnings" with investment cash.

Green blocks go up in graph.

Writing on wall percentages Steadily decline.
( look above green blocks)
Critical Mass.
Revenue increase was only 14% vs last years same 1/4 compared to Lyft at 90%.. Lyft is the smaller co, so they can obviously increase at a faster pace .
Amzn increases at close to 20% over the last few years ..thus the reward in stock movement
Rev does not increase at a higher rate, stock does not move. EPS . Either you need EPS increase at high rate or rev.
FB - very good buy, if Twitter in chief does not tweet in the next 12 mos.?
Actually I was wrong, rev increase is close to 30% compared to last year same quarter, 14 % over last quarter , so Author maybe correct ?but it did go down from 50% from 2017 to 2018 same quarter. So 50% increase down to 30%. So next year, can they maintain 30% rev growth or does it go down to 20%?
Rev needs to increase in the US and Canada .outside rev increase will not matter much.
It is like FB
FB users in the US and Canada spend 7-8 times more than Africa or Asia?
 

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#14 ·
The net loss from operations was just $1.6 billion.
In other words, this company isn't losing money.
They can't even get their own story straight. They just said (two sentences prior) that Uber lost $1.6 billion (after adjusting the total net loss for noncash expenditures), and then they turn around and say that the company isn't losing money. I'll buy that the $5.3 billion number is an inflated loss because paying employees in stock doesn't actually cost the company money. That is a legitimate argument, but even after you correct for that you are still left with a $1.6 billion loss. So how do you turn around and then say that they're not losing money?

In fact, Uber grew its cash on hand by $5.3 billion in Q2, from $6.4 billion at the end of last year, to $11.7 billion by the end of Q2.
This seems misleading or downright dishonest. It says that Uber increased its cash on hand by $5.3 billion in Q2 (from $6.4 billion to $11.7 billion). But then it says that it had cash on hand of $6.4 billion at the end of last year and $11.7 billion at the end of Q2. The end of last year to the end of Q2 would include Q1 and Q2, not just Q2. So it didn't increase cash on hand by $5.3 billion in Q2. It increased cash on hand by $5.3 billion in Q1 and Q2 combined. When was the IPO? In Q1......or was it in Q2? I don't remember. The IPO was definitely after the end of last year, though, and the whole purpose of the IPO was to bring in cash. So of course they have more cash on hand than they did at the end of last year. If they don't, then they are really doing something wrong. Unless their business plan is to just issue more stock every time they run out of cash, then what they are doing now is clearly unsustainable.
 
#23 ·
They can't even get their own story straight. They just said (two sentences prior) that Uber lost $1.6 billion (after adjusting the total net loss for noncash expenditures), and then they turn around and say that the company isn't losing money. I'll buy that the $5.3 billion number is an inflated loss because paying employees in stock doesn't actually cost the company money. That is a legitimate argument, but even after you correct for that you are still left with a $1.6 billion loss. So how do you turn around and then say that they're not losing money?

This seems misleading or downright dishonest. It says that Uber increased its cash on hand by $5.3 billion in Q2 (from $6.4 billion to $11.7 billion). But then it says that it had cash on hand of $6.4 billion at the end of last year and $11.7 billion at the end of Q2. The end of last year to the end of Q2 would include Q1 and Q2, not just Q2. So it didn't increase cash on hand by $5.3 billion in Q2. It increased cash on hand by $5.3 billion in Q1 and Q2 combined. When was the IPO? In Q1......or was it in Q2? I don't remember. The IPO was definitely after the end of last year, though, and the whole purpose of the IPO was to bring in cash. So of course they have more cash on hand than they did at the end of last year. If they don't, then they are really doing something wrong. Unless their business plan is to just issue more stock every time they run out of cash, then what they are doing now is clearly unsustainable.
:i'm mad: Now you stop using common sense and logic before you chase away up's pet trolls.
 
#16 ·
Sorry, but you seem to not understand basic accounting. You might want to get some help with your personal finances because I would be willing to bet you have a large amount of Debt vs Income.

See, when Uber spends more money than its revenue generates, that creates a loss.

It doesn't matter how much "cash infusion" they put in. Because, whether it is from investors on the private side pre IPO or from sale of stocks at IPO this is not money they "own" but rather money they "owe". Each investment expects a return.

The fact that they consistently spend more money than the business generates is why the "Lost" money.

You can doubt this all you want, but the company admitted they lost money in their explanation to the marketing folks they had to let go as part of "trimming the fat".
Next will be massive numbers of middle management, followed by massive numbers of programmers that aren't very good, then you will see the paring of their R&D as no auto manufacturer is going to license SDC software from a company that can't even manage navigation for human piloted fleets.

Eventually Uber, under a third or fourth CEO, will wake up to the wasting of capital they are doing and will trim this business to what it should have been.
Less than 3,000 people total in HQ including IT/DEV, BOD and Operations and about 1200 people (out of that 3,000) actually interfacing with municipalities(including airports) as well as event venues to coordinate profit sharing and throughput. That is 500 people for daily operations of a business that is Just An App. Another 30 for the payment processing team. Approximately 70-120 people doing the actual dev on the app. 1500 for a support call center 24hrs a day (500 people 8 hours each with proper scheduling to cover 7 days). That leaves you about 950 for GLH which are, generally, only open 8 hours a day, if even, in limited locations.
Though, if the phone and app level support wasn't useless people * then we wouldn't even need GLH level folks because all the "Your license is fake (because it has a hologram I can't comprehend)" and the "Your selfie doesn't look enough like you", seriously, it isn't an algorithm, wouldn't need anymore than a 5 minute call to resolve instead of the Multiple 20+ minute calls.

*(they way over spend in this) in the Philippines that not only can't get anything done but don't, usually, even document what you called in about (if they can't throw 5.00US at the problem they have limited solution capabilities and often just flat out lie and say Supervisors don't even exist)
 
#25 ·
Sorry, but you seem to not understand basic accounting. You might want to get some help with your personal finances because I would be willing to bet you have a large amount of Debt vs Income.

See, when Uber spends more money than its revenue generates, that creates a loss.

It doesn't matter how much "cash infusion" they put in. Because, whether it is from investors on the private side pre IPO or from sale of stocks at IPO this is not money they "own" but rather money they "owe". Each investment expects a return.

The fact that they consistently spend more money than the business generates is why the "Lost" money.

You can doubt this all you want, but the company admitted they lost money in their explanation to the marketing folks they had to let go as part of "trimming the fat".
Next will be massive numbers of middle management, followed by massive numbers of programmers that aren't very good, then you will see the paring of their R&D as no auto manufacturer is going to license SDC software from a company that can't even manage navigation for human piloted fleets.

Eventually Uber, under a third or fourth CEO, will wake up to the wasting of capital they are doing and will trim this business to what it should have been.
Less than 3,000 people total in HQ including IT/DEV, BOD and Operations and about 1200 people (out of that 3,000) actually interfacing with municipalities(including airports) as well as event venues to coordinate profit sharing and throughput. That is 500 people for daily operations of a business that is Just An App. Another 30 for the payment processing team. Approximately 70-120 people doing the actual dev on the app. 1500 for a support call center 24hrs a day (500 people 8 hours each with proper scheduling to cover 7 days). That leaves you about 950 for GLH which are, generally, only open 8 hours a day, if even, in limited locations.
Though, if the phone and app level support wasn't useless people * then we wouldn't even need GLH level folks because all the "Your license is fake (because it has a hologram I can't comprehend)" and the "Your selfie doesn't look enough like you", seriously, it isn't an algorithm, wouldn't need anymore than a 5 minute call to resolve instead of the Multiple 20+ minute calls.

*(they way over spend in this) in the Philippines that not only can't get anything done but don't, usually, even document what you called in about (if they can't throw 5.00US at the problem they have limited solution capabilities and often just flat out lie and say Supervisors don't even exist)
Yup.
Spending Debt
While LOSING MONEY !
 

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#26 · (Edited)
is it just me or does it sound like there is no ethics, values , or honesty in business , that's so funny how a column can say uber's not bleeding , uber is rich ? why can't people be honest , is that so hard ?: the company is trash and deserves to go bk.
Whether it's big private business or the government it's all becoming unethical and void of any meaningful customer service. Companies have discovered it's better to waste your time waiting on hold than pay for real customer service to solve problems

I work for a big government agency that over the past couple years has become so inept and incompetent it is unbelievable. Stripped of any meaningful management or supervision we no longer have any vision or direction. If you apply for a job at our agency now you'll wait a minimum of six months to get hired and probably longer.

Anyway I'm not exactly sure what's going on but companies like Uber and Lyft are definitely part of the problem. They really have no accountability. Obviously they have no customer service. And they skirt laws to avoid paying employee benefits and taxes. They called most of the shots, make all the rules, yet somehow get their workers classified as independent contractors.
 
#36 ·
Yeah...precisely how many shares just got awarded? What percentage of the total shares are they? It's that many more shares that must participate in dividends, diluting what drivers or whoever might buy Uber stock, their shares. Does that put the cost of those employee awarded shares onto the people who pay money for their shares? Seems like it to me.
 
#39 ·
The stock they gave away doesn't cost them money, but it still has market value. Any investor worth anything at all will count this in as part of their losses. That stock has to be bought back eventually.

It wouldn't matter if they gave the stock to homeless people, it would still be a loss. This is just a way to account for that loss upfront rather than down the line.

This is one of the fuzzy math tricks that corporate accountants use to make the numbers look differently than what they actually are. This is one of the reasons investing is so difficult for the average Joe. You have to sort through all kinds of smoke and mirrors to find true value.

Them stating this literally changes nothing about their business picture.