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Discussion Starter · #1 · (Edited)
Sorry for not updating guys, but my holdings on GME and AMC have been fueling a 5 day erection that just won't go down -lol!

Anyway, please don't interpret this as investment advice. Instead, think of this as the ramblings of a market gambler with serious issues. First, I'd like to congratulate the recent millionaires among you (you guys held from the very beginning and truly deserve your tendies. You know who you are!).

Now to business.

In order to better understand my post, let us revisit the 4/29/21 event that I covered extensively, the one where Uber's stock price nose dived from $58.94 to $43.17 and lead to a 27% drop in capitalization.
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Do you see the wedge that formed (the edge of the triangle seen by my red lines, which is also called a vertex by the programmers among you) at our 4/29/21 event? Pattern traders call it a pennant pattern because it depicts the end of a consolidation period between bulls and bears. Although my chart is a 90 day chart, the struggle between bulls and bears had been taking place months prior to our 4/29/21 event (I had been tracking it for weeks prior to deciding to revealing it here). Anyway, the end of a pennant pattern ultimately ends with either a sky-high price event or a nose dive (In our case, the drop of Uber's 27% capitalization). Having said that, on bear markets dealing with companies that have shit fundamentals like Uber, it's the bears that usually win.

Now, I will leave you with the following chart, which I captured as of today, 6/3/21. I could be wrong, but is that another wedge that formed just passed the $51.41 high after hours?
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I have already mentioned the purpose of the DMI and MACD on prior posts, so I will not be commenting on them today. Now, day traders set stop losses and don't expect winnings beyond a 2-5% on their trades. Having said that, they normally bankroll individual trades conservatively in the low single-thousand digits (unless their trading opportunity exceeds the reward-risk ratio).

Again, Uber is a company with bankrupted ethics and will likely get zero support from retail investors regardless of its SI. Is this another shorting opportunity? ...I don't know, I'll let you decide despite my indicators.

Fvck guys, I need to go tend to something, lol! ...Have fun.

Remember, this was not investment advice.
 

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:censored:
 

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This is unprecedented.
no way, I do it all time since they nuked all the reactions and a certain limit was removed. :rolleyes: but, since you replied....

Yes Uber's cash burn rate, unchanged, means they will be appoaching zero cash or near cash balances in a quarter or 2. Way before then I do think investors will cough up $$. And Lyft is in the same exact situation cash wise.

Raise rates to match taxi's; done and done.
 
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no way, I do it all time since they nuked all the reactions and a certain limit was removed. :rolleyes: but, since you replied....

Yes Uber's cash burn rate, unchanged, means they will be appoaching zero cash or near cash balances in a quarter or 2. Way before then I do think investors will cough up $$. And Lyft is in the same exact situation cash wise.

Raise rates to match taxi's; done and done.
Never happen.
They will cut Driver Pay.
 

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Discussion Starter · #8 · (Edited)
...

... And Lyft is in the same exact situation cash wise.

...

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Yes, they are positioned similarly when it comes to financing, but Lyft does seem to be a better investment. It has higher institutional support (82.79% vs. 74.66%) and has been performing better since the beginning of the year despite having a less diversified business model.

Btw, that yellow line collapsing in the middle of the chart is my OBV indicator marking lower volume, which hints at a much deeper price correction for Uber. Although Lyft trades similarly, notice a less discernible wedge. Lastly, Lyft is currently trading above its 50 and 200 day moving average, which hints at more bullish momentum.

Technically, you could short either stock due to their poor fundamentals, but shorting Uber will be more profitable.

Is there anything left to cut??!!
I'm sure Uber is working on it! lol
 

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Yes, they are positioned similarly when it comes to financing,
i only track cash and near cash balances ie cash burn. Both are in a sinking cash ship. And if the hull isn't repaired and then water removed, both will sink......Sometimes I think it is a race to see who gets to zero cash.

Investment wise? I'd never touch either with my $$. Yikes.
 
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Discussion Starter · #10 ·
...

Investment wise? I'd never touch either with my $$. Yikes.
I disagree because investors make money regardless of the investment instrument or market condition by employing different strategies. For instance, investors buy long in bull markets while selling short during bear runs. It's a matter of learning new strategies that run contrary to established doctrine. Believe me, institutions love it that retail traders keep to traditional, simple strategies like buying long because investing is a zero-sum game where resources are transferred one way.

Investment instruments like bonds, options, forex, leaps, and, recently, crypto have good returns when investors employ the proper strategy. Again, it's a matter of stepping out of your comfort zone.

...i only track cash and near cash balances ie cash burn. Both are in a sinking cash ship. And if the hull isn't repaired and then water removed, both will sink......Sometimes I think it is a race to see who gets to zero cash.
If you have zero confidence in either company, then why not short sell them long term? Short 1 stock of each for one year, and see how much it nets you. If either company goes bankrupt, you keep 100% of your investment (excluding fees and taxes). Investing is about having confidence in your strategy and having conviction.

Although I consider both Uber and Lyft to be poor performers, I don't share your over pessimistic assessment because the cash flow situation is not as bad as you and others make it out to be. I have already posted several replies on the issue...

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Wow, what an unexpected reversal!

From $48.95 to a close of $50.20 would mean a loss of 2.14% (had we closed our short position). Fortunately, most day traders don't close their positions on the same day if their positions swing negative (unless they're triggered by limit losses). And at an expected 5% gain, we would have needed a price drop of $2.44 to trigger a sales order, which did not happen.

Although most professionals discourage investors from after hours trading, the volatility during after hours affords us with a great opportunity to close our position. Still, here you have to have true conviction because price swings during after hours vary greatly. Meaning, you have to stick to your 5% gain regardless of larger price drops (remember, we're shorting, so the further the price drop the better). What makes after hours trading risky (or favorable depending on your position) is that price swings may completely reverse the following day. In other words, if we forfeit our 5% gain in after hours expecting the price momentum to continue the following day, we may end up passing our opportunity to close our position the following day. Also, if the momentum swings unfavorably the following day, we will have to wait another day!

Unfortunately, pricing did not change much after hours. Hence, we're stuck 'till Monday when we're expecting huge price swings due to a CPI update by the Fed -Yay!

Most investors are expecting inflation to increase, so if the CPI index is greater than expected, we'll probably have a red day where we could finally close our position...

Such is the day of day traders... What sucks is trading long (instead of short selling) is not much different. You may find yourself in a similar or worse position even if your stock is trending upwards and your indicators are positive. For instance, imagine expecting a 5% gain on Apple even though it has mainly traded sideways and/or upwards/downwards. Here, you could also be stuck for days before closing your long position. Hence, trade enough and either trading long or short will make little difference. These days knowing the best tools just means that you're not falling too far behind the pack. The key is patience and waiting long enough to extract those gains...

Just some thoughts guys... I can't wait 'till Monday. I'll probably also lock some profits on my meme stocks...
 

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I don't share your over pessimistic assessment because the cash flow situation is not as bad as you and others make it out to be.
I think if you begin to compare financial reports from each quarter and track what has happened with the 'cash' position you will agree with me fully. Trend lines don't lie. If nothing aborts the cash burn, Uber will run out of cash prior to December or a bit later.

They will need a huge influx of cash (no, not a credit line) and/or abort the trend line to the opposite direction. It's math.

Invest in Uber, with real money....even shorting? NO frakin way. :rolleyes:
 

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Discussion Starter · #12 · (Edited)
Ok, guys, this is an update to our original play.

As a reminder, on 6/3/21 I brought attention to a forming wedge (#2 on the picture below) that hinted at a consolidatory struggle between bulls and bears. And because the subsequent price drop didn't extend much further that day (a little more on that later), it left me scratching my head.

Now, check out the posted image, which captures the pricing action that followed. I depicted the chart in line format in addition to the traditional candle format most of you are familiar with to show you the ongoing struggle (candle charts can be more ambiguous at times when depicting these events). Specifically, pay attention to the wedge on the line chart at #3, which is easier to follow.

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Do you guys see it (blow up the picture if you have to)?

To make a long story short (sorry, I couldn't resist the pun, guys -lol), I needed more data because the consolidatory struggle between bulls and bears only later intensified. Check out my original wedge (#2) and compare it to my new one (#3): my revised wedge is much more refined due to the newer pricing points. Having said that, by the look of the unsustainable green pricing levels, the little struggle is coming to an end as bulls become exhausted. Remember, an ending wedge can result in either the price hitting higher levels or dipping down to lower levels. The longer the struggle, the higher the climb or dip. My only concern is the options chain, which is slightly more bullish than I would like. In addition to the IV being lower, I see no unusual options activity at the different pricing levels.

Still, I like the setup because bullish investors have run out of steam, guys. Our correction is coming next week!

Lastly, it looks like we've entered a period where the 200 SMA (the hyphenated sky-blue line) has become support, which hints the tail end of the 8 month bull run that drove pricing from $30s to current pricing levels. It's hard to say whether we'll resume the stock's bullish momentum. We need a few weeks worth of more data to establish an upward or downward trend.

This is not investment advice, but popcorn time!

600266
 

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Discussion Starter · #13 · (Edited)
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Hi guys, it looks like we hit our correction yesterday, 6/15/21, and continued correcting today. Our correction happened a day earlier than anticipated, a minor discrepancy that often happens when drawing our wedges. Often times the erratic pricing makes it difficult to draw correct patterns, which was indeed our case. Ideally, you want to draw patterns across candle wicks (not candle bodies), touching at least 3. For illustrative purposes I used a line chart, which is not recommended when drawing patterns.

Monday (6/14/21) broke our pennant, an important event that helps us establish a new trading channel. Barring catalysts, we're likely to trade within our new found channel ($51.42-$48.62) in the immediate future until more pricing action helps us identify an upward or declining trend. Having said that, because today we did hit a lower low (see end of wedge), I'm inclined to guess at a declining trend which will probably be supported/discarded in the coming weeks.

Are we likely to drop further? Taking a look at the daily chart hints at the end of our bullish momentum. A bearish candle on our daily chart in addition to a bullish MACD indicator informs us that tomorrow will likely be slightly bullish. We will likely test the $48.62 support level a few more times before recovering. If we consolidate below that level, we may end up hitting $47.83, our bottom, which I see as unlikely now that we have established our trading channel.

Can we still see our 5% return? Defintely! However, if we don't hit $46.50 tomorrow or at least hit a lower low, then most likely not. We're near the end of our corrective wave.

Something else worth considering: Friday's Quad Witching day, which happens four times a year when a shit load of options expire, so expect much volatility. Many investment funds also use this day to reallocate their portfolios. It'll be interesting to see if Uber picks up additional institutional support, which has surprisingly increased just slightly despite the increase in risk due to renewed fed interest in addressing the employee issue. I believe Uber now ranks #11 in hedge fund holdings with Altimeter Capital and Tiger Global Management among top holders.

After making stupid decisions that have cost them billions to meme stocks, these hedge funds continue to baffle me with their stupidity. Uber's dependence on cashflows from investments and financing instead of operations is a recipe for disaster. Meanwhile, Uber also faces an existential threat due to fed action over the drivers and benefits issue... It's what you call smart money, right? Anyway, if we go by the expected market correction, which should be coming any week now, it all won't matter.

I'll probably make one last update guys...or not. I think you now have a basic understanding of the shorting process...

Remember, all this was not investment advice!
 
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