[wpguy1967]

Sometimes people post things to be dramatic. This is not dramatic at all. If you're in the transportation business, you have around 15 years. No, Uber drivers are not in jeopardy right now. Long term? Self-driving cars will make up 1% of all cars on the road, then 5%, then 50%, etc....

Your grand kids will talk about how we drove cars like our grandparents talked about how they got ice and milk delivered. This is advancement, technology. Where are all the phone operators? Where are all the typists companies used to have to employ? Technology erases entire sectors of jobs. Driving will be one of them.

 

[wpguy1967]

Not to get too far off track here but I'll go on a bit of a tangent on self-driving cars:

Scenario: You're doing 45 on a two lane country road. A deer jumps out. Within fractions of a second, you know there's an oncoming car in the other lane and trees to the right.

Your choices are:

A: Swerve into the left lane and get hit head on.
B: Hit the deer
C: Yank the wheel to the right and hit the tree.

.....what's the self-driving car going to do?

 

[wpguy1967]

About 15 to 20 years sounds about right. After 20 years, once self-driving cars are readily available, insurance companies will make sure no human is behind a wheel by jacking the rates through the ceiling:

A) Self-driving car = $50/mo
B) Oh....you're driving it? $800/mo

 

[wpguy1967]

Also, what about road conditions? Like snow or floods....

....hence the 15 to 20 years to really work through this. But let's get one thing clear, humans are absolutely the worst in poor weather conditions, typically driving too fast or not understanding how to correct a skid. A self-driving car is going to be far better.

 

[wpguy1967]

Have you seen these youtube comoilations of ukrain and russian accidents. Some are doing 100mph in heavy snow! Its totally insane. Self driver will be safer. I want to go mechanic and controls tech college now. Im 35+, its not too late right?

First of all, let's get get this much right - assume there were no cars; they didn't exist but just got invented. After a lot of studies, it was determined that there would be around 35,000 deaths per year and hundreds of thousands of smaller accidents.

Sounds horrible, right? But we accept that risk because we want convenience. I don't care how many youtube videos you watch, self-driving cars will great reduce the number of deaths and accidents.

So if self-driving cars kill 5,000 people a year, I'll take it from 35,000 a year.