[ftupelo]

Have any Ants here done any work on the UBER IPO or recent LYFT earnings? I know I am the resident finance expert (unlike the other ants who come on here with amateur opinions and financial advice), but I play in the private equity/private debt/venture debt/BDC/Venture Capital space, so I do not have time to do meaningful work on public markets companies. I do invest my PA (private account) in public equities, but I don't like losing money, so I don't hold any UBER or Lyft stock. I do know that Lyft has had an about-face on some of their public disclosures. I warned of this and it appears to be a blatant attempt to disclose less about the vig they take from drivers. What is UBER's disclosed vig in comparison to Lyft's?

Anyone have Wall Street analyst reports they can share? I will see if I can track down some analyst reports for the ants. I work with some research analysts, primarily only in one industry, but since I do private deals, I don't give much trading volume to any firms and therefore don't get a lot of analyst research.

 

[nighthawk398]

lol it's going to lose money so no one cares

 

[FatCopOnSegwayAtAirport]

Some of Lyft’s debt is 10 or more points + LIBOR. By some I mean, hundreds of millions of dollars, and NO attempt to restructure has been indicated. Might as well buy one of the hundreds of crappy BDCs out there or buy a bunch of puts like that one guy here. I can only expect to be horrified at what the liability side of Uber’s ledger looks like

 

[ftupelo]

Some of Lyft's debt is 10 or more points + LIBOR. By some I mean, hundreds of millions of dollars, and NO attempt to restructure has been indicated. Might as well buy one of the hundreds of crappy BDCs out there or buy a bunch of puts like that one guy here. I can only expect to be horrified at what the liability side of Uber's ledger looks like

Interesting, thanks for this. I only play in the direct lending space, so I don't look at syndicated deals (outside of one-off KKR syndicated situations) or CLOS or bonds/high yield debt situations. Could be an interesting piece of paper if it is really yielding at those levels.

I hold 4 BDC's, 2 very high-quality trading above book but still yielding ~10% and 2 trading at or below book, but still high-quality names associated with larger brands in the specialty finance space.

 

[FatCopOnSegwayAtAirport]

I’ll think I know the ones your talking about, almost certain of the 2 below book. It’s possible they originated some of the initial non-VC capital for Lyft and uber but I doubt it. I’m very familiar with their due diligence process and even Silicon Valley startups that make it past the 2 year mark are too risky for them. I do know some BDCs, specifically non-traded ones that wrote some of their paper and pumped it up as a selling point to investors but I wouldn’t touch those with someone else’s 10 ft pole.

But yeah if you have the stomach for that kind of yield (which I think is too low) I think there willing to take your call if you have the money.

 

[ftupelo]

I'll think I know the ones your talking about, almost certain of the 2 below book. It's possible they originated some of the initial non-VC capital for Lyft and uber but I doubt it. I'm very familiar with their due diligence process and even Silicon Valley startups that make it past the 2 year mark are too risky for them. I do know some BDCs, specifically non-traded ones that wrote some of their paper and pumped it up as a selling point to investors but I wouldn't touch those with someone else's 10 ft pole.

But yeah if you have the stomach for that kind of yield (which I think is too low) I think there willing to take your call if you have the money.

My holdings are:
HTGC
ARCC
FSK
TCPC

Why do you think a 9-10% yield is too low? Names like HTGC and ARCC weathered the great financial crisis, so you can assume their business model is sustainable through cycles. Over the long term, the S&P 500 returns what 8-9%? So if you can get a yield of 9-10% with the potential for appreciation in the value of the stock, that seems like a decent return to me.

 

[FatCopOnSegwayAtAirport]

I thought you would have PSEC but I underestimated your intelligence lol. I kid, but I was more referring to holding Lyft or Uber’s first or second lien debt wholly. If you are exposed to it within a BDC, why not. I’ll gladly pay 2 and 20 for that yield and those management teams you hold all day.

 

[ftupelo]

Jealousy of others doing well is not restricted to just @nachoman and Uberpeople.

https://www.businessinsider.com/oli...-investment-in-2011-getting-criticized-2019-5

 

[Nobo]

Have any Ants here done any work on the UBER IPO or recent LYFT earnings? I know I am the resident finance expert (unlike the other ants who come on here with amateur opinions and financial advice), but I play in the private equity/private debt/venture debt/BDC/Venture Capital space, so I do not have time to do meaningful work on public markets companies. I do invest my PA (private account) in public equities, but I don't like losing money, so I don't hold any UBER or Lyft stock. I do know that Lyft has had an about-face on some of their public disclosures. I warned of this and it appears to be a blatant attempt to disclose less about the vig they take from drivers. What is UBER's disclosed vig in comparison to Lyft's?

Anyone have Wall Street analyst reports they can share? I will see if I can track down some analyst reports for the ants. I work with some research analysts, primarily only in one industry, but since I do private deals, I don't give much trading volume to any firms and therefore don't get a lot of analyst research.

wait you don't have time to look at specific IPO's because you are to busy making real money with private ventures , but you have time to post here 8 hrs a day ? just curious

 

[ftupelo]

Les Ants,

UBER will be announcing quarterly earnings after the bell this afternoon. I look forward to digging through the numbers for any interesting tidbits. I wanted to revive this thread as a place for us to share learnings from their quarter - I'll be reading the conference call transcript and posting later in the day. Stock is down 35% from 52-week high - what's everyones bet on how it reacts after earnings?

 

[ftupelo]

The market obviously isn't too bullish. Company trading down meaningfully (-1.83%) on a day when 27/35 of the positions in my portfolio are in the green and portfolio is up +0.81% overall.

 

[NauticalWheeler]

Buy the post lockup dip

 

[TX Uber Ant]

Traders have a $1.5 billion bet riding against Uber (UBER, LYFT)

https://markets.businessinsider.com...-billion-dollar-bet-against-2019-5-1028236383

I wouldn't go anywhere near it.

 

[ftupelo]

With so much short interest (~30%), any sort of beat or positive outlook could cause a decent pop. Stock is so beaten down and expectations are pretty low - those are the conditions you want to see. Unless it's a disastrous quarter, we may see an upward move. Risk-on trades are back in vogue.

 

[NauticalWheeler]

Buy and gold tools. Buy and forget about it. Thank me in 2030.

Also, hoard cash now to scoop up depressed equities when the market inevitably ranks in the next 1-2 years.

Also, hire me. It can even be a mafia no-show job. My Fight Club needs corporate sponsorship.

 

[ftupelo]

Buy and gold tools. Buy and forget about it. Thank me in 2030.

Also, hoard cash now to scoop up depressed equities when the market inevitably ranks in the next 1-2 years.

Also, hire me. It can even be a mafia no-show job. My Fight Club needs corporate sponsorship.

Say what?

Hoarding cash and buying at the bottom sounds good in principle, but when the sky is falling, buying risk assets is behaviorally not an easy task. If market timing were easy, everyone would be doing it and the pro money managers don't seem to consistently beat the market through this approach. Since the 2009 bottom, this market has been climbing a wall of worry. If you look back, it's been one scare after the other and folks have been calling for a crash the whole way. The best approach for nearly everyone is to regularly invest - that way, sometimes you are buying when the market is cheap and sometimes you are buying when it is over-valued, but at least you are in the market. Over long periods, one will end up okay.

 

[TX Uber Ant]

There could be significantly more selling pressure on Uber's shares starting Wednesday, when the "lockup" period following Uber's May IPO expires. Lockups prevent early shareholders and executives from dumping shares in the first weeks following an IPO. RBC Capital Markets analyst Mark Mahaney estimated that 1.7 billion shares would become eligible for sale, roughly 90% of the total.

Analysts at Wedbush Securities said there could be "an avalanche of selling."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/uber-booked-another-quarterly-loss-as-revenue-climbed-11572901549

 

[ftupelo]

Haven't had a chance to digest the materials, but trading down another ~4.5% after hours. Was down ~7% at one point.

 

[songoku]

Still remember I told one the Ants here it trading down to 30. Lol.

@TX Uber Ant lock up selling off become less common as they been unloading the boat for months.

You might see big money driving $UBER price up short term. Goldman Ball Sac, BoA, Chase...

 

[TX Uber Ant]

@songoku I don't understand why its not a penny stock?