Uber Drivers Forum banner
1 - 9 of 9 Posts

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
5,066 Posts
Discussion Starter · #1 · (Edited)
Shorting disruptive companies that dominate a megatrend simply because they lose money is a sure way to go broke.

5 reasons not to short Lyft.


In the interest of balance.

Although if go though the reasons listed

1 Compounded.
People use Lyft because it is cheap. Operates at a massive loss and relying on subsidises.
Take away the subsidises people look elsewhere to get around.

2.Upward Sloping Cohort Curves.
Again it's only price and take away the subsidises and that chart looks very different.

3. The Trend is Real
Just making shit up. Absolutely no evidence people are giving up cars.

4. Market Share Against Uber Makes Lyft Better Value.
Lyft paid a high price for its market share. Way too much and that now has to be maintained though subsidies.

5. Automomus vehicles.

Lol.

I'm shorting Lyft.
 

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
7,699 Posts
Shorting disruptive companies that dominate a megatrend simply because they lose money is a sure way to go broke.

5 reasons not to short Lyft.


In the interest of balance.

Although if go though the reasons listed

1 Compounded.
People use Lyft because it is cheap. Operates at a massive loss and relying on subsidises.
Take away the subsidises people look elsewhere to get around.

2.Upward Sloping Cohort Curves.
Again it's only price and take away the subsidises and that chart looks very different.

3. The Trend is Real
Just making shit up. Absolutely no evidence people are giving up cars.

4. Market Share Against Uber Makes Lyft Better Value.
Lyft paid a high price for its market share. Way too much and that now has to be maintained though subsidies.

5. Automomus vehicles.

Lol.

I'm shorting Lyft.
Car sales are actually significant down over the last twenty years


That's why gm is so interested in rideshare
 

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
5,066 Posts
Discussion Starter · #3 ·

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
7,699 Posts

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
230 Posts
Uber is unstainable in its current form. Watch what happens when gas prices continue to rise and the smart drivers realize they are making $8 an hour in the city. Or when the recession finally hits and people stop taking ubers. Think of the losses then. They have been operating in conditions that couldn't get much better - booming economy, low gas prices, minimal regulation and taxes. Cities, such as Chicago, have caught on to taxing them. I think it's $0.70 per ride/rider (in pools). Other cities have either started or are considering it. This industry is as big as it'll get for years.

Driver turnover is too high, losses too high, it'll crash at some point. They can't raise prices because the cheap millenials might switch to public transportation, god forbid.

I never think shorting a stock is a good thing as short term movements have nothing to do with the long term. I'm just saying this industry is unsustainable in its current form. Nor am I saying they are going out of business. They just can't keep up this growth. Summer is coming and gas prices will rise more, lets see how many drivers can drive long enough. Surge may keep people driving. Me, for one, will not drive during non-surge as I don't make enough to justify my time and car damage. When pay was higher I would.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,893 Posts
Car sales are actually significant down over the last twenty years


That's why gm is so interested in rideshare
Americans have chosen to vote for representatives that have consistently voted to give their constituents less.
Less everything.

So if you see trend lines pointed south for various durable goods it might be because overall wages are stagnant and declining.

Also, there aren't as many homeowners as there were 10-12 years ago for sure. People are renting more and may not want large expenditures like refrigerators, washers and dryers, heavy furniture, and vehicles preventing them or adding cost to their mobile lifestyle.
 

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
7,699 Posts
Americans have chosen to vote for representatives that have consistently voted to give their constituents less.
Less everything.

So if you see trend lines pointed south for various durable goods it might be because overall wages are stagnant and declining.

Also, there aren't as many homeowners as there were 10-12 years ago for sure. People are renting more and may not want large expenditures like refrigerators, washers and dryers, heavy furniture, and vehicles preventing them or adding cost to their mobile lifestyle.
That's an interesting perspective.... Shame it's wrong
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
129 Posts
im sorry but i simply cant agree to short a company that employs hundreds of thousands of people. It might not be worth 200 billion but its worth at least the ipo price. almost all tech stocks are worth at least the ipo price. pretty much all the older tech companies made people multiple millions of dollars who got in early. unfortunate the last one was probably nextflix. we can probably say with a service like this they will probably keep growing. probably expand somehow into ridesharing with people sharing actual cars. for example im using it now and you are using it later. id swap a car with someone. then they work out the economics of it and boom you got a refined transportation system. so many different angle if there is scheduling better. Id say both uber and lyft are worth at least 150 billion both an even split between them would then make lyft a better buy, unless there only turns to one like thefacebook or the google or the amazon. it wouldnt hurt to buy a few shares. The price is already way high for a stock $70 a share is an insane ipo price. wow awesome.
 

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
10,844 Posts
im sorry but i simply cant agree to short a company that employs hundreds of thousands of people. It might not be worth 200 billion but its worth at least the ipo price. almost all tech stocks are worth at least the ipo price. pretty much all the older tech companies made people multiple millions of dollars who got in early. unfortunate the last one was probably nextflix. we can probably say with a service like this they will probably keep growing. probably expand somehow into ridesharing with people sharing actual cars. for example im using it now and you are using it later. id swap a car with someone. then they work out the economics of it and boom you got a refined transportation system. so many different angle if there is scheduling better. Id say both uber and lyft are worth at least 150 billion both an even split between them would then make lyft a better buy, unless there only turns to one like thefacebook or the google or the amazon. it wouldnt hurt to buy a few shares. The price is already way high for a stock $70 a share is an insane ipo price. wow awesome.
Please don't short Lyft if it makes you uncomfortable.
 
1 - 9 of 9 Posts
This is an older thread, you may not receive a response, and could be reviving an old thread. Please consider creating a new thread.
Top