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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Howdy Ants! On this episode of Franky's weekly wrap-up, I'd like to discuss how everyone's week played out. I think it would be helpful for us to discuss what we are seeing out in the marketplace so that we can compare our relative key performance indicators against the rest of the ants. This will help us to gauge both sides of the supply and demand equation from week to week. I know the general consensus is that summer can be very slow with all of the universities on break. I myself was experiencing as much. I found that demand seemed to wane quite markedly since St. Patrick's day with almost nary a surge to be found. However, I nearly had one of my best weeks ever this past week. Maybe it is the World Cup that is getting people out and about, but I saw fairly solid demand on both Saturday and Sunday - I was not able to get much Hemingway in this weekend with all of the demand.

So, how did the ants do this past week?
 

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Howdy Ants! On this episode of Franky's weekly wrap-up, I'd like to discuss how everyone's week played out. I think it would be helpful for us to discuss what we are seeing out in the marketplace so that we can compare our relative key performance indicators against the rest of the ants. This will help us to gauge both sides of the supply and demand equation from week to week. I know the general consensus is that summer can be very slow with all of the universities on break. I myself was experiencing as much. I found that demand seemed to wane quite markedly since St. Patrick's day with almost nary a surge to be found. However, I nearly had one of my best weeks ever this past week. Maybe it is the World Cup that is getting people out and about, but I saw fairly solid demand on both Saturday and Sunday - I was not able to get much Hemingway in this weekend with all of the demand.

So, how did the ants do this past week?
Hemingway is good, Steinbeck is better, Rand is best.

.
 

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The animals spirits are alive and well. Unemployment is at historic lows. Folks have money to spend and are utilizing our services to spend their disposable income.
It's been about a decade since the last recession. The next downturn will be worse.

Inflation is starting to get out of hand in real estate. 10% gains every year on your shack isn't sustainable at all.
 
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It's been about a decade since the last recession. The next downturn will be worse.

Inflation is starting to get out of hand in real estate. 10% gains every year on your shack isn't sustainable at all.
Agreed. I'm reading The Black Swan, by Nassim Taleb, at the moment. Makes me think the next time the SHTF, it will be worse, maybe much worse, than before.
 

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Discussion Starter · #12 ·
Agreed. I'm reading The Black Swan, by Nassim Taleb, at the moment. Makes me think the next time the SHTF, it will be worse, maybe much worse, than before.
I will have to disagree with you fine folks and agree with TexasSteeler. I do not doubt that we will have some sort of recession at some point in the not too distant future, but that is, historically, natural given business cycles. What is not historically probable are downturns like the Great Depression and the Great Recession. You know why I can say the Great Recession and Great Depression and most folks with some knowledge of history know exactly which periods I am talking about? Because they are outliers. Recessions are quite common, massive contractions in economic activity like the other two periods are not common. Although asset prices are likely inflated currently, you just aren't seeing the types of valuations or shenanigans you saw that precipitated the big 2. Even the bust following the internet bubble (much higher valuations than today) at the turn of the century didn't drag on too long or require the type of Keynsian monetary policy/quantitative easing the last recession required. People were so scarred by the great recession that they are fearful of it happening again - but it's just not likely.

I would be interested to hear perspectives from Cary Grant and dirtylee on what may cause a substantial downturn this time around. It's usually some unknown/black swan event, but I'm just not seeing the excesses. Sure, loosening of credit standards is happening now, but much of the credit expansion, particularly for riskier loans, has moved away from the banks to private credit funds. Private funds blowing up just doesn't have the systemic risk that the massive losses on mortgage-backed securities and CDO's did last recession (unless there this some sort of long-term capital management situation we aren't aware of).
 

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Discussion Starter · #14 ·
Whatever the cause may be, it will be something I cannot foresee, for reason(s) that I don't know yet.

Hence, The Black Swan.

I'm not worried about it. I'm prepared.
Prepared how my friend? Sitting on cash? Short positions? Out of the money puts?

Anyways, this week seems to be slower than last. Was busy Tuesday, but Monday and Wednesday were rather slow.
 

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I hoard cash. Literally. I'm not trading derivatives, at least not at the moment.

Many moons ago, I was having lunch with a prospective client. We were talking about accumulation of capital, and he was telling me how his father taught him to "save to save." This is different from the "save to spend" that most 'Murican parents teach (if they teach anything at all about money). This guy was American, but his parents were FOB before he was born. Thomas Sowell writes about this group a lot (think "Paris of the Levant."), as he writes about several groups that excel as entrepreneurs. They do well everywhere they migrate to, all over the world, regardless of the economy, in spite of the political situation. They make fools of certain native groups here in the USA, so I pay attention to their habits.

This guy was driving a Viper (used), with a D tag. Because he owned a used car lot, one that catered to the average normie, who bought a fast car on payments, living paycheck to paycheck, blowing too much of his income on boozed up weekends. He made a mint by repo'ing these cars when these bottom rungers spent a month or several in jail after a DUI, or assault/possession beef. He joked about his customers having very low impulse control, and very high time preference. This is unusual language from someone that did not attend university. After they got out of jail, his customers would go get another J.O.B., and then go buy another of his cars, on payments. Rinse, repeat. Deposit. Deposit.

He also owned a few other businesses. At that time, back in the 1990s, he was depositing $10,000+ per week into his savings account at the bank. We reviewed his statements, he had just over $500,000 saved. No inherited money, either. Dad co-signed on his first loan to buy a small business, when he was 18, with the understanding that he got one chance to succeed, or fail, and there would be no bailouts, of any kind, ever. This is how that family, and all the families like them, do it.

He was only 26 years old when we had lunch.

I mention this anecdote because it explains one reason why I drive part-time after work. I'm just adding to the pile. Saving to save.

People with cash get to take advantage of buying opportunities. People who have no liquidity miss those opportunities. Stock markets crash. Real estate bubbles burst. I don't care when. I'm prepared.

This week has been relatively slow, although last night was good, especially if you were positioned/staged at the right time near Fair Park. :D
 

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Discussion Starter · #16 ·
Thank you for your anecdote Cary Grant, always informative and entertaining. Most folks just don't understand the need to save consistently and then not spend those savings. I mentioned in a prior post that I don't target saving a certain percentage, because I might feel that I can then spend up to that amount. I try to save every penny possible at all times.

I obviously don't need the money earned through UBER, but like yourself, I like to keep stacking.
 

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Thank you for your anecdote Cary Grant, always informative and entertaining. Most folks just don't understand the need to save consistently and then not spend those savings. I mentioned in a prior post that I don't target saving a certain percentage, because I might feel that I can then spend up to that amount. I try to save every penny possible at all times.

I obviously don't need the money earned through UBER, but like yourself, I like to keep stacking.
Mr.Tupelo you are the compass for success
 

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Discussion Starter · #18 ·
Mr.Tupelo you are the compass for success
I would have to agree with you. The formula for success in this country is really not a secret. Do well in school, attend a good university and major in something applicable, marry well, spend significantly less than you make, buy and hold equities. Unfortunately, most folks do not have the grit, self-control, and/or ability to defer gratification to be successful. Cary Grant eluded to it in his prior post - many people suffer from low impulse control and cannot play the long game.
 
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