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Evidence over hysteria

2K views 48 replies 16 participants last post by  bpm45 
#1 ·
#2 ·
I like it. In a nutshell it says the media is blowing it out of proportion with the way they report it. The numbers they use while accurate aren't the whole picture. It would probably imply the government actions while well intentioned may be over blown.
If you are a politician and it ends up actually being a significant problem then you can say we did our best and it made the situation better. If you are wrong All you did was blow up the world economy
 
#3 · (Edited)
You are right, the data is killing us before the virus does. Unfortunately the data in that link is wrong. The reality is this unfortunately...now I just hope we deal better that Italy with this virus.


Would you take a chance to keep the economy going normal if the people you are governing have a 1% chance to die? Who cares about economy when death is in your back yard.....I don't give a f about economy, have just essentials going and thats it.

What is 25% of today's population? Don't feel invincible people, this is worst than you can imagine....and actually the politicians are downplaying the gravity of the situation.
Stay home and invest 1k( or more) in any stock when dow jones is 15k. You will make 4x in 1 year....spanish flu below.
 

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#8 ·
It looks like the guy is a very conservative person who also wrote for Breitbart at some point. So yea the numbers are probably skewed, but no more than some the media are putting out just in the opposite direction.
Most of the politicians should be concerned about it most of them fall into the high risk categories. Should they be concerned that 1% of constituents can die sure. At the same time it's the age groups where they are occurring. Here is a chart 65-70 is 1.8% and it gets bigger by age
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#9 · (Edited)
Anyone familiar with Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect? It goes as follows. If you read an article in a newspaper on a subject you know well and recognize the article to be completely wrong, why do you turn the page and accept as true everything else in the paper? This is Gell-Mann Amnesia.

A similar thing is occurring right now. We know our elected officials have a history of being greedy corrupt fools generally acting in their own interest not ours, who have spent us into massive debt, and government employees that face no loss of their jobs if they make mistakes or act illegally. Why do we think their decisions regarding this "crisis" are different?

They are attempting to find a optimal short-term solution to a problem, but are likely ignoring the better long-term outcomes. If the seasonal flu kills 50,000 a year and we believe this novel coronavirus is twice as deadly, shouldn't we be willing to accept 100,000? 6 times more deadly or 300,000?

They seem to be operating on the false premise that any loss of life is unacceptable, or that if it saves just one life we should pay any price. I want them to publish their expected number of infected, hospitalizations, critical patients, and deaths with their approach versus with no stay at home order. They claim to have looked at data and models, but they should show their work. That's the only way to evaluate them.

How many lives will be lost from a destroyed economy? Not theirs. They're just asking us to trust them.

They haven't earned that right.
 
#10 ·
Anyone familiar with Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect? It goes as follows. If you read an article in a newspaper on a subject you know well and recognize the article to be completely wrong, why do you turn the page and accept as true everything else in the paper? This is Gell-Mann Amnesia.

A similar thing is occurring right now. We know our elected officials have a history of being greedy corrupt fools generally acting in their own interest not ours, who have spent us into massive debt, and government employees that face no loss of their jobs if they make mistakes or act illegally. Why do we think their decisions regarding this "crisis" are different?

They are attempting to find a optimal short-term solution to a problem, but are likely ignoring the better long-term outcomes. If the seasonal flu kills 50,000 a year and we believe this novel coronavirus is twice as deadly, shouldn't we be willing to accept 100,000? 6 times more deadly or 300,000?

They seem to be operating on the false premise that any loss of life is unacceptable, or that if it saves just one life we should pay any price. I want them to publish their expected number of infected, hospitalizations, critical patients, and deaths with their approach versus with no stay at home order. They claim to have looked at data and models, but they should show their work. That's the only way to evaluate them.

How many lives will be lost from a destroyed economy? Not theirs. They're just asking us to trust them.

They haven't earned that right.
An opinion and I respect that but I don't agree at all with it. One is to have hundreds of thousand infected and thousands deaths and one is to have millions infected and hundreds of thousands deaths. Honestly are people like tractors this days......money, money, money and money again!!!!! People, you need to chill a bit.....one month is not going to kill you. Sooner or later this closings would've happen.....guaranteed.
The sooner you act the faster we all go thru this, why is that hard to figure this one?!?!
 
#17 ·
It looks like the guy is a very conservative person who also wrote for Breitbart at some point. So yea the numbers are probably skewed, but no more than some the media are putting out just in the opposite direction.
Most of the politicians should be concerned about it most of them fall into the high risk categories. Should they be concerned that 1% of constituents can die sure. At the same time it's the age groups where they are occurring. Here is a chart 65-70 is 1.8% and it gets bigger by age View attachment 434136
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Actually, the cases in the US are skewing away from the older people and most are occurring in the under 55 category.
 
#18 ·
Actually, the cases in the US are skewing away from the older people and most are occurring in the under 55 category.
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I guess that's a good sign, in theory, as younger people should be in relatively better health so at lower risk

some of it could also be attributed to increased testing ( not huge amounts) Purely a guess but the first people being test were the highest at risk and now more people are getting tested. The number of cases of of
NBA players alone is probably enough to make he skew start going lower.
 
#25 · (Edited)
Cigarette smoking is responsible for more than 480,000 deaths per year in the United States, including more than41,000 deaths resulting from secondhand smoke exposure. This is about one in five deaths annually, or 1,300 deaths every day.
But they live a good 30-40 years easily.... this virus kills you in a matter of weeks.....I bet there are many who smoke and die from the virus if they catch it ( speeding up the process and make Phillip Morris look good too....less deaths because of cigarets this year).
Another thing, first hand smocking is a choice, even second hand smocking is a choice but this virus is not a choice( I wish it was).
 
#26 ·
Look this year alone 23k died from flu alone in USA. Sure this might be a bit worse but not as bad as people are trying to make it look. It is being made to look worse to crash the world. It's bad that people die but it's a virus that only god can stop. So stay healthy take vitamin D don't smoke.
 
#33 ·
Please stop spreading misinformation minimizing what is going on with coronavirus. This is a new virus that does not currently have a vaccine. For 80% of the people it is not a major issue as there will not be a death risk. However, 20% of the population is at extreme risk. We have over 300 million people in the USA. That puts 60 million people in the high-risk category. If the health system is overloaded just in the United States there is the potential that MILLIONS of people can die. We are trying to slow down the spread of the virus so the healthcare system is not overloaded which will cause an incredibly high number of people to die unnecessarily. If your parents or grandparents are in a high-risk category and YOU pass the virus on to them they can DIE. South Korea has done a lot of things correctly in fighting the virus and even saw 10 days of a decrease in cases .... People started moving around again, and now the virus has started to once again spike. Italy just had 800 deaths in one day. This is happening 2 weeks AFTER the entire country was shut down. It is a slow progression. New York, California and Chicago will be the three biggest hotbeds for coronavirus in the USA and we will likely see the same thing happen here!! This isn't a media creation or fantasy. They are losing money like everyone else. These companies have no money for ads right now. All the money they were making on political ads has now ended. This crisis is real!!!
 
#29 · (Edited)
His data is flawed. Let me rephrase that- his EVIDENCE is flawed.

Therefore the underlying argument he is making can not be backed up factually using flawed data.
But he has an agenda to confirm and all who would agree will conveniently be ignorant in order to hear what they wish to hear.

The USA just started testing, and is not ramped up to the needs of those who should be tested.
Illinois cases are doubling by the day- this is more a factor that to be tested positive for corona the tests first have to actually be available.

The USA is a large nation- taking the population as a whole and saying corona isn't pervasive throughout = true.
Saying the areas of the west and east coast with high population density are more prone (and is evident) for outbreaks is more true.

You can spin data all you want to fit your agenda- it doesn't prove jack.
Calling data "EVIDENCE" to weakly support your argument= agenda.
Common sense and critical thinking skills and being objective- those are the pillars of truth.

Dump the author of the opinion piece in Wuhan or Italy (or New York City) and he'll scream hysterically louder than a pig going to slaughter.
 
#34 ·
His data is flawed. Let me rephrase that- his EVIDENCE is flawed.

Therefore the underlying argument he is making can not be backed up factually using flawed data.
But he has an agenda to confirm and all who would agree will conveniently be ignorant in order to hear what they wish to hear.

The USA just started testing, and is not ramped up to the needs of those who should be tested.
Illinois cases are doubling by the day- this is more a factor that to be tested positive for corona the tests first have to actually be available.

The USA is a large nation- taking the population as a whole and saying corona isn't pervasive throughout = true.
Saying the areas of the west and east coast with high population density are more prone (and is evident) for outbreaks is more true.

You can spin data all you want to fit your agenda- it doesn't prove jack.
Calling data "EVIDENCE" to weakly support your argument= agenda.
Common sense and critical thinking skills and being objective- those are the pillars of truth.

Dump the author of the opinion piece in Wuhan or Italy (or New York City) and he'll scream hysterically louder than a pig going to slaughter.
The raw data isn't flawed it's been spun by both sides. The truth is somewhere in the middle. If you pick the right data points you can have all of America dead by breakfast. Or you can say it's done. Both are wrong
 
#45 · (Edited)
Everyone I know who gets or got the flu never went to doctor. They got whatever meds at cvs or walgreens fight it off best they can.
So in all those cases i just know it was never reported. So the true flu numbers are way off.
But I see it this way many of the possible deaths by flu may have been this new virus we just did not have tests to confirm it. So it's very possible this has been in USA since Dec spreading. And a few other high up doctors are now thinking this exact thing. Only way is to go back and look at every case and death by flu. By the numbers this virus has not caused more deaths than the flu worldwide or in USA. Older people have always been a high risk with the flu to die...13,000 deaths by this virus worldwide. 23k deaths in USA alone by flu. Seasonal flu kills 291,000 to 646,000 people worldwide
 
#46 · (Edited)
Is it safe to assume no peer reviews were done on this "study"?
ChrisFX must consider himself a peer.

He worked for briebart and the Koch bros. So probably no peers that are that far right. That being said he took a different perspective which was focusing on breaking down numbers and what was behind them as opposed to yesterday was 500 today is 1000 at the current pace it will be 64k in a week. Will it be that high probably because the rate of testing will increase. Could it be there now. Yes just people are waiting to be tested
Exponential growth always slows down. If you have a contained population, it can't grow beyond the number in the population. If you further reduce the number in the population that can become infected it reduces the limit further.

Everyone I know who gets or got the flu never went to doctor. They got whatever meds at cvs or walgreens fight it off best they can.
So in all those cases i just know it was never reported. So the true flu numbers are way off.
But I see it this way many of the possible deaths by flu may have been this new virus we just did not have tests to confirm it. So it's very possible this has been in USA since Dec spreading. And a few other high up doctors are now thinking this exact thing. Only way is to go back and look at every case and death by flu. By the numbers this virus has not caused more deaths than the flu worldwide or in USA. Older people have always been a high risk with the flu to die...13,000 deaths by this virus worldwide. 23k deaths in USA alone by flu. Seasonal flu kills 291,000 to 646,000 people worldwide
The CDC numbers for flu infections and deaths are estimates. Their estimates are generally regarded as under-estimates. They don't collect actual statistcs on the flu.
 
#48 ·
That's a nice cut and paste job from CDC web page. The thing to remember about those particular statistics is that they are imputed numbers. There are no death causes that identify smoking or second-hand smoke. It is cancer or emphysema or heart disease, etc. The statistical analysis strongly indicates linkage to smoking with a very weak linkage to second hand smoke exposure. Unortunately the CDC don't provide any reference to risk relative to dosage, or, how varying days months years of smoking/exposure.

Fwiw, I don't smoke and I think it's good to publish the risks so people can understand what they're getting into. However I want people to not merely blindly accept government data.
I think you are writing something you don't even believe. By your logic, nothing will kill you. It's not the car accident, it's the crushed lungs. It's not the murderer, it's the sliced artery. It's not the gun, it's the hole in your brain.... give me a break.

Do you believe that smoking cigarettes can kill you? Yes or no?
 
#49 ·
That is not a rational conclusion from my post.

Yes, of course these things can cause medical problems that can kill you. The questions are, will they, and from what dosages? It's well known that it's the dosage that makes the poison. We have acceptable levels of exposure to all kinds of toxic chemicals, defined by all sorts of health organizations like the FDA, AMA, etc.

Ask your doctor, if you smoke just one cigarette, will it kill you, when will it kill you and what will be the problem that causes death? No competent doctor can answer those questions. No one can.

Various groups will claim there's no known safe level of exposure to tobacco smoke, even though all the components parts have safe levels defined when included on other things, because they've never tested it to determine the relative risk of varying dosages.

In closing, i don't smoke and don't recommend anyone does, but statistics must be used in the right way and interpreted properly. Emotion and personal choices must be excluded.
 
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