[backstreets-trans]

I think this shut down is going to hit Arizona hard and have a long lasting impact. Short and long term convention business will see a hefty decrease. Travel and tourism will slow with people having less disposable income. The bartenders, servers and cooks will be hurt with many restaurants closing for good.

Our retail shopping centers have had huge vacancies with the closures of many grocery centers. Now the smaller stores will also close up shop with no surrounding foot traffic. If a Basha's, Frys or Albertsons closed in a strip mall then that whole center slowly dies and this pandemic with speed up the process.

We have a huge cottage industry of AirBnB buyers that have bought up a lot of South Scottsdale real estate. I'm sure they are leveraged to the gills with multiple properties. Zero incomes in the prime earning months, unpaid mortgages and a slow season approaching will force them to liquidate many of the properties. This will lower property valuations and a crisis could snowball. You might think I'm crazy but I've drove several investors around just to look at properties in the past. This is a fairly big industry here.

I honestly think this is going to hit uber/lyft drivers even harder because now all the unemployed and under employed will increase supply while demand is slowing. Add on the early closing of all the colleges too that will strip demand. The govt unemployment benefits will help but won't last forever.

What are your thoughts? A quick bounce back or a long process.

 

[Samuel38]

 

[backstreets-trans]

I'm sorry I couldn't watch all that video but I assume he's trying to state whether the virus is a hoax or not. I think that's irrelevant. We're in a situation that's going to change our economy and put us into a recession. The fact that the cure could be worse than the disease is debatable. I'm trying to gauge some of the long term ramifications and position myself accordingly..

 

[TakeFive]

We have a huge cottage industry of AirBnB buyers that have bought up a lot of South Scottsdale real estate. I'm sure they are leveraged to the gills with multiple properties. Zero incomes in the prime earning months, unpaid mortgages and a slow season approaching will force them to liquidate many of the properties. This will lower property valuations and a crisis could snowball. You might think I'm crazy but I've drove several investors around just to look at properties in the past. This is a fairly big industry here.

I hadn't even thought about AirBnB as I only know what little I've read so your point is interesting.

Two things yet to be determined. Will 'we' experience any 'rebounds' meaning as when thing relax will it result in more new cases popping up. Second, will this bug recycle next year?

I sense there's already some pent-up demand for continuing with conferences and conventions IF things were to normalize. A lot could change by the end of April so it's still too early to predict what the New Normal will be but certainly all the points you make are valid possibilities.

 

[backstreets-trans]

I hadn't even thought about AirBnB as I only know what little I've read so your point is interesting.

Two things yet to be determined. Will 'we' experience any 'rebounds' meaning as when thing relax will it result in more new cases popping up. Second, will this bug recycle next year?

I sense there's already some pent-up demand for continuing with conferences and conventions IF things were to normalize. A lot could change by the end of April so it's still too early to predict what the New Normal will be but certainly all the points you make are valid possibilities.

That's kind of my point. This year was hurt but next year will remain iffy until a vaccine is produced. Another difference that'll hurt AZ is that the Canadians are hurt with low crude oil prices. I can't remember how many passengers I've had from Calgary over the years. They kind of bailed us out after the 2008 crash. Where is our new influx of capital going to come from?

 

[Bergie]

Real estate is going to tank as no one is buying and, as mentioned above, investors having a firesale/being forclosed on. As goes real estate, there goes AZs economy.

 

[BillyBob444]

I think this shut down is going to hit Arizona hard and have a long lasting impact. Short and long term convention business will see a hefty decrease. Travel and tourism will slow with people having less disposable income. The bartenders, servers and cooks will be hurt with many restaurants closing for good.

Our retail shopping centers have had huge vacancies with the closures of many grocery centers. Now the smaller stores will also close up shop with no surrounding foot traffic. If a Basha's, Frys or Albertsons closed in a strip mall then that whole center slowly dies and this pandemic with speed up the process.

We have a huge cottage industry of AirBnB buyers that have bought up a lot of South Scottsdale real estate. I'm sure they are leveraged to the gills with multiple properties. Zero incomes in the prime earning months, unpaid mortgages and a slow season approaching will force them to liquidate many of the properties. This will lower property valuations and a crisis could snowball. You might think I'm crazy but I've drove several investors around just to look at properties in the past. This is a fairly big industry here.

I honestly think this is going to hit uber/lyft drivers even harder because now all the unemployed and under employed will increase supply while demand is slowing. Add on the early closing of all the colleges too that will strip demand. The govt unemployment benefits will help but won't last forever.

What are your thoughts? A quick bounce back or a long process.

Thanks for the report Capt Doomsday

 

[backstreets-trans]

Thanks for the report Capt Doomsday

That's been my role. I can;t argue.

 

[just_me]

There's a nationwide foreclosure moratorium in effect until May 16th (at the earliest). Good news for the owners of the Airbnb properties. But if you were renting the property and doing Airbnb to help make the rent payment - life could become more difficult for you.

"You can always tell who has been swimming naked when the tide goes out" (old wall street expression).

https://www.housingwire.com/article...ud-suspending-all-foreclosures-and-evictions/

 

[nonononodrivethru]

Most people who own Airbnbs are pretty solvent. It will be easy to rent the property to cover mortgage or most of mortgage.

AZ is pretty dependent on California's and Illinois's economy. How they fare through this will be interesting.

AZ is likely in everybody's radar for downsizing and a safe place to ride this out. AZ did well after 2008 and will do well after this. There will be a hiccup for a bit, but don't forget that people are going to be loaded up with stimulus Trumpbux here in a few weeks.

Summer just came early. This city is used to this.

Additionally, most Airbnbs got swamped with people fleeing California and Illinois and other coronavirus hotspots from people looking for a safe place to ride out the storm.

I reckon half of the Airbnbs are owned by Californians and they'll hunker down in their own space as a precaution.

 

[backstreets-trans]

Most people who own Airbnbs are pretty solvent. It will be easy to rent the property to cover mortgage or most of mortgage.

AZ is pretty dependent on California's and Illinois's economy. How they fare through this will be interesting.

AZ is likely in everybody's radar for downsizing and a safe place to ride this out. AZ did well after 2008 and will do well after this. There will be a hiccup for a bit, but don't forget that people are going to be loaded up with stimulus Trumpbux here in a few weeks.

Summer just came early. This city is used to this.

Additionally, most Airbnbs got swamped with people fleeing California and Illinois and other coronavirus hotspots from people looking for a safe place to ride out the storm.

I reckon half of the Airbnbs are owned by Californians and they'll hunker down in their own space as a precaution.

I was wondering about the angle if your telecommuting in a crammed apt complex you might move to a warmer climate with less dense population. If we see a drop in real estate we might get more people from Seattle and Cali with our lower home prices. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. One thing for sure is that Uber will have to pay for driver safety nets in the future. No way will the govt bail them out again with unemployment insurance. Uber will have to contribute something.

 

[AZAV8R]

When this all does end, there will be one less driver on the road. ME! I've had enough of UBER's crap and traded in my car yesterday with the promise to my wife I'd never UBER again. D-U-N done! Wishing you all the best of luck.

 

[iamthenewguy123]

I have a feeling Uber's driver supply will diminish when the economy recovers as more people will realize there is just no profit to be made driving at these rates. It will be interesting to see how the whole ride share industry evolves.

 

[BillyBob444]

When this all does end, there will be one less driver on the road. ME! I've had enough of UBER's crap and traded in my car yesterday with the promise to my wife I'd never UBER again. D-U-N done! Wishing you all the best of luck.

Sounds like someone is P-Whipped

 

[MrEspywnr16]

No question AZ will feel the impacts of this more than most states. The timing of this couldn't have sucked more. I feel the summer is gunna be rougher than normal but come October we are gunna see a surge in business like we never have before. I honestly feel things will even be better than they were before just in time for the meat and potatoes time of the nicer weather and 🏈 season. I can't wait....just gotta stay focused on the positive!!!

 

[Kaliman]

I am a Realtor, an Investor, and Owner of several rental properties.

As a Realtor I will be helping my clients buy properties on the cheap as people panic or lose their homes.

As an investor I am holding on to my properties until the market goes back to normal. And I'll buy if a great deal comes my way.

As a Landlord I expect some of my Tenants will pay me partial rent or no rent this month. It's all good as the banks have offered me to skip payments for a month or two.

As an Uber driver I stopped driving the first week or March and will return when I feel it is safe to do so. Not one minute sooner.

 

[TakeFive]

That's kind of my point. This year was hurt but next year will remain iffy until a vaccine is produced. Another difference that'll hurt AZ is that the Canadians are hurt with low crude oil prices. I can't remember how many passengers I've had from Calgary over the years. They kind of bailed us out after the 2008 crash. Where is our new influx of capital going to come from?

YIKES!

https://news.yahoo.com/oil-hits-us-...open-when-prices-turn-negative-172104653.html

 

[backstreets-trans]

YIKES!

https://news.yahoo.com/oil-hits-us-...open-when-prices-turn-negative-172104653.html

Time to double down on some crude oil stocks. I guess I'm playing black jack now.

 

[Rocknrlk]

No question AZ will feel the impacts of this more than most states. The timing of this couldn't have sucked more. I feel the summer is gunna be rougher than normal but come October we are gunna see a surge in business like we never have before. I honestly feel things will even be better than they were before just in time for the meat and potatoes time of the nicer weather and 🏈 season. I can't wait....just gotta stay focused on the positive!!!

Don't really see the fast turnaround that you are hoping for. After this ends folks are going to have a lot less disposable income and will be fighting to catch up on their bills. And then their is always the chance that the virus takes another shot at us come fall that would again wreak havoc with our economy. Also see a reluctance of folks jumping back into travel and gathering in large groups. Just going to take some time to get back to where we were.

 

[just_me]

The only thing that will stop this virus from taking another shot at us is an antidote, which is still 12 to 18 months away according to many estimates. Only then will it safe for crowds. Little chance pro and college sports, etc, to begin again until its safe for crowds.