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The real barriers to self-driving Ubers are financial (replacing our coverage with a fleet of robo-cars would be insanely expensive and put all of the burden of operation on Uber, where right now it's on us), legal (liability due to any and all accidents, again on us now but on them 100%) and logistical (infrastructure, mapping and social).

Congress has nothing to do with it, really.

It's going to be a long, long time before Johnny Cab replaces us.
 

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Discussion Starter · #7 ·
Not true. Self sriving cars are a form of AI. AI is just machine slavery. You buy a car and let the car work 12hr shifts. It will meet you at the gas station.
The real barriers to self-driving Ubers are financial (replacing our coverage with a fleet of robo-cars would be insanely expensive and put all of the burden of operation on Uber, where right now it's on us), legal (liability due to any and all accidents, again on us now but on them 100%) and logistical (infrastructure, mapping and social).

Congress has nothing to do with it, really.

It's going to be a long, long time before Johnny Cab replaces us.
 

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What im saying is you buy a machine that does the work for you, i.e., the printer, the dish washer, now the car.
And? What does that have to do with anything? I think we all understand that a self-driving car replaces a driver.

I mistakenly thought you were interested in discussing the feasibility of such a thing, and when if ever this would take place, but apparently you want to tell me that a self driving car is a machine that does work for you.

Alrighty. I think we're done here.
 

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Discussion Starter · #13 ·
Ok. Ciao

And? What does that have to do with anything? I think we all understand that a self-driving car replaces a driver.

I mistakenly thought you were interested in discussing the feasibility of such a thing, and when if ever this would take place, but apparently you want to tell me that a self driving car is a machine that does work for you.

Alrighty. I think we're done here.
 

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It will be some years before total autonomy and pilotless cars. What swingset is getting at is when uber replaces us with robot cars they're going to need gobs of capital for their robot fleet.
 

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~2-3 years
Lol, they won't even have the navigation issues solved by then (and likely never will, all of us know the futility of accurate pax location), let alone a reliable fleet built, nor the manpower to maintain and service them, the infrastructure built to house and deploy them, nor a plan to do so. Then there's the very daunting issue of liability, legality (not even close to sorted out), and demand....many pax are hesitant to even ride in one.

Just put in a simple equation. There are at any given time 160,000 of us. To maintain the current level of service (which even then is sometimes inadequate for their pax as Surge rates testify), they'd have to build and put 160,000 autonomous vehicles into service. Do you have any idea how many units that is? The optimistic (likely wrong) estimates say that in mass production a driverless car would cost $35-50k a piece). That's after either adapting an existing car or building a new one from the ground up. Assuming it's Uber-specific, that would likely push the production date out many years to produce 200k cars a year, and you'll need to have that production a well oiled machine to drive the price down to $35k.

Just to BUY them (if they were available in 2-3 years, and they are not going to be), it would take over 6 billion dollars. That's more than Uber's entire net worth. And, that's IF they could be produced that cheap. It may take 3 or 4 times that much, no one really knows. It's super generous to even believe they can make one in the range of a nice mid-sized sedan. So, let's figure billions to build the factories, then the cars, then buy them, then all the R&D and operational expense to deploy them, test them, and replace us.

That doesn't include ANY money to operate them, maintain them, clean them, retrofit or repair them, or rotate them in and out of service....because you're probably going to need more for reserves too.

So, in that short time Uber is going to bankrupt itself and a bunch of investors on non-existent cars that the market isn't ready for, society isn't clamoring for, to operate at expenses Uber has never faced, on a grid of roads not even remotely designed for them?

Oh, I forgot the pile of lawsuits for every single incident where someone is hurt or killed by an Uber robot car. Currently, that falls entirely on us as IC's, but Uber after laying out Elon-Musk-esque capital in 2-3 years is going to field every single class action, multi-million dollar lawsuit (and lose) when their tech hurts someone (and it will, it's still in its infancy).

Sure, sure. Seems super likely.

Oh, that's a good one. I needed a good laugh on a Thursday morning.
 

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Discussion Starter · #19 ·
Lease xchange or similar company could lease out fleets of such cars. The owner or leasee would clean it, fill it with gas or plug it in, and do general maintenance.

Rmembet also, 1917. People werent running to buy cars. They didnt become ubiquitous until the phone did in the 1950s. Those two items were in every movie, but people still visited by horse, foot and subway. They wrote letters or didnt communicate for years.

Lol, they won't even have the navigation issues solved by then (and likely never will, all of us know the futility of accurate pax location), let alone a reliable fleet built, nor the manpower to maintain and service them, the infrastructure built to house and deploy them, nor a plan to do so. Then there's the very daunting issue of liability, legality (not even close to sorted out), and demand....many pax are hesitant to even ride in one.

Just put in a simple equation. There are at any given time 160,000 of us. To maintain the current level of service (which even then is sometimes inadequate for their pax as Surge rates testify), they'd have to build and put 160,000 autonomous vehicles into service. Do you have any idea how many units that is? The optimistic (likely wrong) estimates say that in mass production a driverless car would cost $35-50k a piece). That's after either adapting an existing car or building a new one from the ground up. Assuming it's Uber-specific, that would likely push the production date out many years to produce 200k cars a year, and you'll need to have that production a well oiled machine to drive the price down to $35k.

Just to BUY them (if they were available in 2-3 years, and they are not going to be), it would take over 6 billion dollars. That's more than Uber's entire net worth. And, that's IF they could be produced that cheap. It may take 3 or 4 times that much, no one really knows. It's super generous to even believe they can make one in the range of a nice mid-sized sedan. So, let's figure billions to build the factories, then the cars, then buy them, then all the R&D and operational expense to deploy them, test them, and replace us.

That doesn't include ANY money to operate them, maintain them, clean them, retrofit or repair them, or rotate them in and out of service....because you're probably going to need more for reserves too.

So, in that short time Uber is going to bankrupt itself and a bunch of investors on non-existent cars that the market isn't ready for, society isn't clamoring for, to operate at expenses Uber has never faced, on a grid of roads not even remotely designed for them?

Oh, I forgot the pile of lawsuits for every single incident where someone is hurt or killed by an Uber robot car. Currently, that falls entirely on us as IC's, but Uber after laying out Elon-Musk-esque capital in 2-3 years is going to field every single class action, multi-million dollar lawsuit (and lose) when their tech hurts someone (and it will, it's still in its infancy).

Sure, sure. Seems super likely.

Oh, that's a good one. I needed a good laugh on a Thursday morning.
 

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Lease xchange or similar company could lease out fleets of such cars. The owner or leasee would clean it, fill it with gas or plug it in, and do general maintenance.
Uhhhh, where is this company going to come up with billions to build, maintain, operate, clean and field all of these cars? Remember, we're talking possibly more money that Uber is even worth just to have these cars, let alone operate them. How is it going to insulate itself from the liability? How is it going to work with the legalities of the states and localities it operates in? How is it going to seamlessly work with the Uber software to effectively pick up and drop people off with the existing and flawed navigational information we all have access to? What if it all magically happens and the customer base declines because enough people don't like the idea (or don't want to ride around in a dirty, puked-in robot car), and the stock plummets and kills it all?

How does your nifty answer do anything but shift all of the problems over to another entity who has all the same problems Uber would in order to field these robotic cars?

None of those barriers are anywhere close to being sorted out, let alone paid for. Certainly not 2-3 years out.
 
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