Uber Drivers Forum banner
1 - 20 of 117 Posts

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
4,405 Posts
Discussion Starter · #1 ·
The last few weeks have obviously been very painful for the DLC and his stonks. I believe I lost more today than I’ve made driving U/L since I signed up almost exactly 5 years ago.

However, I started to put some money to work on Friday and have taken some bites of the apple each leg down. The risk/reward seems asymmetrical to the upside here. I think the market fell 40% during the Great Recession and we are down about 20% from recent highs. If things get uglier, I don’t see the market giving back more than 30%ish. So, you are looking at maybe 10% downside and 20% upside to prior highs. Markets tend to have V-shaped bottoms, so I’m not trying to catch this thing at the nadir. Keep buying, average down, and long term I will be fine.
 

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
9,447 Posts
The last few weeks have obviously been very painful for the DLC and his stonks. I believe I lost more today than I've made driving U/L since I signed up almost exactly 5 years ago.

However, I started to put some money to work on Friday and have taken some bites of the apple each leg down. The risk/reward seems asymmetrical to the upside here. I think the market fell 40% during the Great Recession and we are down about 20% from recent highs. If things get uglier, I don't see the market giving back more than 30%ish. So, you are looking at maybe 10% downside and 20% upside to prior highs. Markets tend to have V-shaped bottoms, so I'm not trying to catch this thing at the nadir. Keep buying, average down, and long term I will be fine.
You've lost NOTHING unless you've sold.

Maybe dividens start getting cut.

Unrealized losses are nothing-burgers if the company's long-term solvency isn't in question, which it probably isn't.

Maybe buy a little more than usual, if you want to, but stay the course.

I still think Virgin Galactic is a smart and fun speculative play. Also, can I have $250k to take a ride on one of those things? Better yet, let's both ride it and we can discuss my resume during the descent.
 
  • Like
Reactions: MHR

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
4,405 Posts
Discussion Starter · #3 ·
You've lost NOTHING unless you've sold.

Unrealized losses are nothing-burgers if the company's long-term solvency isn't in question, which it probably isn't.

Maybe buy a little more than usual, if you want to, but stay the course.

I still think Virgin Galactic is a smart and fun speculative play. Also, can I have $250k to take a ride on one of those things? Better yet, let's both ride it and we can discuss my resume during the descent.
You are right, which is why I'm not worried and have indeed been a buyer on the way down. It's scary in the short term, but if you aren't up in the long term, then the US has some major issues.

I've seen what Virgin's stock price has done, but have done zero work on the company. Maybe you'd be getting in on the ground floor of a business that is in its infancy similar to how the commercial airlines were at one point. But the commercial airline industry is littered with tombstones and until the last decade was never too profitable of a business.

I honestly couldn't tell you the bull case for the company. Will there ever be enough volume to make meaningful money. Sure the unit economics may be fantastic - you sell a seat for $250k and it costs you $100k. If you only give a few hundred rides a year, that's not a very interesting business.
 

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
7,782 Posts
Bricks-and-mortar duuude.
And 8 1/2 by 11 piece of paper with numbers on it mailed to you monthly. Can change quickly I learned that during the .com bust...:cautious:
But it always bounces back. it's just stressful.
 

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
4,405 Posts
Discussion Starter · #5 ·
All of the Asian markets were up yesterday, futures are up, banks were up big after hours, so we should be in for at least some sort of rebound today. Yesterday was pure panic, which can signal capitulation. Later in the day it did feel like sellers were getting exhausted and everything was way oversold. Will still be keeping dry powder in case we see another 10% down - I need some ammo to be able to take advantage in that scenario.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,630 Posts
I swore all of this off to see if I could get more out of life. However, I just re-installed the CNBC app to keep up with the news flow, airline cuts etc. AAL is continuing to cut, share price is down 50% etc. Looks like there could be some long waits at DFW for the time being? I'd encourage anyone with the means to do exactly what you're doing. Hopefully it will all start to turn around before things get harder for people financially. By the way, what got you into rideshare driving @ftupelo ? For some of us driving's like a bad habit. However, I can't imagine anything more socially stimulating
 

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
4,405 Posts
Discussion Starter · #7 ·
I swore all of this off to see if I could get more out of life. However, I just re-installed the CNBC app to keep up with the news flow, airline cuts etc. AAL is continuing to cut, share price is down 50% etc. Looks like there could be some long waits at DFW for the time being? I'd encourage anyone with the means to do exactly what you're doing. Hopefully it will all start to turn around before things get harder for people financially. By the way, what got you into rideshare driving @ftupelo ? For some of us driving's like a bad habit. However, I can't imagine anything more socially stimulating
I first signed up 5 years ago while living in Austin to take advantage of the 9x surges during SXSW. Outside of the two weeks of SXSW, I did not drive. Once I moved to Dallas, I lived in the Village for about 6 months prior to moving to HP. After moving to HP I wanted to make sure I stayed grounded - we all know the Park Cities bubble can change people. Besides my attempt to stay grounded, I enjoy making a little extra cash and sweetie travels all of the time for works, so it keeps me busy and funds my scotch collection.
 

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
258 Posts
I first signed up 5 years ago while living in Austin to take advantage of the 9x surges during SXSW. Outside of the two weeks of SXSW, I did not drive. Once I moved to Dallas, I lived in the Village for about 6 months prior to moving to HP. After moving to HP I wanted to make sure I stayed grounded - we all know the Park Cities bubble can change people. Besides my attempt to stay grounded, I enjoy making a little extra cash and sweetie travels all of the time for works, so it keeps me busy and funds my scotch collection.
You're a very interesting guy. I myself drive for a little extra money when my day job isn't paying me overtime. Last week I was able to put in 21 hours of overtime, so no driving. Although with the virus I will probably bow out for a little while.
 

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
4,405 Posts
Discussion Starter · #9 ·
You're a very interesting guy. I myself drive for a little extra money when my day job isn't paying me overtime. Last week I was able to put in 21 hours of overtime, so no driving. Although with the virus I will probably bow out for a little while.
Thanks, I think. Most people can't believe or don't understand why I drive. Sometimes I ask myself the same question. I do meet some interesting Pax and most nights I come home to an empty house, so I might as well pick up a few extra bucks while I not doing much else productive.

Aaaaand the Dow has now turned negative folks. Get those trigger fingers ready. Time to start thinking about averaging down. I welcome this turn of events - I was disappointed that I may have not put enough to work when I had the chance.
 

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
9,447 Posts
Thanks, I think. Most people can't believe or don't understand why I drive. Sometimes I ask myself the same question. I do meet some interesting Pax and most nights I come home to an empty house, so I might as well pick up a few extra bucks while I not doing much else productive.

Aaaaand the Dow has now turned negative folks. Get those trigger fingers ready. Time to start thinking about averaging down. I welcome this turn of events - I was disappointed that I may have not put enough to work when I had the chance.
Back up again, this is like a ride at Six Flags!

😃
 

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
4,405 Posts
Discussion Starter · #13 ·
If I were in the market and based off of previous crashes I think SLV (silver) is at a good buying point.
How would you buy silver though? Physical coins or an ETF?

And why not gold instead?

I don't own any precious metals. If I were to, I'd probably buy gold coins that I could keep at home and enjoy having. It just seems like there would be pretty hefty transaction costs, both when you buy and sell.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,630 Posts
I first signed up 5 years ago while living in Austin to take advantage of the 9x surges during SXSW. Outside of the two weeks of SXSW, I did not drive. Once I moved to Dallas, I lived in the Village for about 6 months prior to moving to HP. After moving to HP I wanted to make sure I stayed grounded - we all know the Park Cities bubble can change people. Besides my attempt to stay grounded, I enjoy making a little extra cash and sweetie travels all of the time for works, so it keeps me busy and funds my scotch collection.
@ftupelo I hope Mr. H*g* doesn't drop by while you're on UberPeople Dallas! (I'm not sure how long you've been there or whether he's still involved). Let me start out by saying I was very impressed by the young folks at the Snider Plaza Tom Thumb when I ran in late one night recently and how courteous and respectful they were to everyone there. I should have them give me a lesson on manners! I also think people underestimate or aren't aware of how many good people there are who put their $$$ where there mouth in the PCs.

That said, what % of people do you think may have an unhealthy relationship with money or put too much emphasis on prestige, status etc. People are quick to say their mansion on the most visible corner and luxury cars parked in the drive (even though there's a 6 car garage around back) are simply a byproduct of their success. I'm not sure how they say this with a straight face although most of us can attest to the power of human denial, it's bounds are limitless.

I realize this is more or less an unanswerable question as not many of us can read minds but I'd be curious as to what your thoughts on this subject are. And yes, I may have embellished a little bit for fun. 6 car garages are more prevalent in Preston Hollow
 

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
4,405 Posts
Discussion Starter · #17 · (Edited)
:cautious:

This dip is great time to buy.

Next dip will be on Trump 2nd term and it's gonna be bloody.

Ready to embrace it sir @ftupelo ?
Why would there be a dip when Trump is re-elected? Overnight futures plummeted when he was elected the first time, but I believe markets were actually up the next day. Markets don't like uncertainty, which is what caused the initial overnight sell-off. There is no uncertainty with a Trump re-election - the only uncertainty would come with a replacement.

I am already buying the dip now and would look to buy any dip on the outcome of the election.

@Funky Monkey I will attempt to answer when I have a chance.

Folks, we are again heading towards negative territory, be ready to pounce! my biggest concern with buying here is that we are near a 20% drop, which takes us into bear market territory - I fear once we cross that threshold, algos kick in and we head further south. This market looks like it wants to test the December 2018 lows, which implies another 10% down move. We don't want to blow our entire wad here.

Also, very negative that we could not hold today's gains. I don't think I want to be buying into that weakness - will be better opportunities later.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,630 Posts
Why would there be a dip when Trump is re-elected? Overnight futures plummeted when he was elected the first time, but I believe markets were actually up the next day. Markets don't like uncertainty, which is what caused the initial overnight sell-off. There is no uncertainty with a Trump re-election - the only uncertainty would come with a replacement.

I am already buying the dip now and would look to buy any dip on the outcome of the election.

@Funky Monkey I will attempt to answer when I have a chance.

Folks, we are again heading towards negative territory, be ready to pounce! my biggest concern with buying here is that we are near a 20% drop, which takes us into bear market territory - I fear once we cross that threshold, algos kick in and we head further south. This market looks like it wants to test the December 2018 lows, which implies another 10% down move. We don't want to blow our entire wad here.

Also, very negative that we could not hold today's gains. I don't think I want to be buying into that weakness - will be better opportunities later.
Surprisingly difficult question, eh? I'm thinking 33.3% to 66.6%. We have our parents' expectations (my dad cares but doesn't necessarily have grandiose expectations for me. My mom grew up in HP, went to SMU but is almost completely oblivious to material concerns. Albeit, she might want a car one step up from the base model).

We also have a society, well capitalism and marketing, that pushes fine scotch and Swiss watches on us. And no better solution to capitalism that I can think of. I probably look like a young millennial entrepreneur in my luxury sedan. People can infer from that what they like, usually incorrectly.

I take that most of your posts are somewhat tongue and cheek, but let's face it MOST OF US enjoy a nice thing or two from time to time. It's just important not to let those very same things own us. I frankly wish I had the stones to throw everything away and move abroad for a while. Especially in the waning years of my unparalleled beauty and intellect.

I leave my Swiss watches in the underwear drawer and wear this every other day to keep it running. It may have a few less jewels, but I'll take it over the black-faced Pepsi Submariner any day
 

Attachments

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,108 Posts
Why would there be a dip when Trump is re-elected? Overnight futures plummeted when he was elected the first time, but I believe markets were actually up the next day. Markets don't like uncertainty, which is what caused the initial overnight sell-off. There is no uncertainty with a Trump re-election - the only uncertainty would come with a replacement.

I am already buying the dip now and would look to buy any dip on the outcome of the election.

@Funky Monkey I will attempt to answer when I have a chance.

Folks, we are again heading towards negative territory, be ready to pounce! my biggest concern with buying here is that we are near a 20% drop, which takes us into bear market territory - I fear once we cross that threshold, algos kick in and we head further south. This market looks like it wants to test the December 2018 lows, which implies another 10% down move. We don't want to blow our entire wad here.

Also, very negative that we could not hold today's gains. I don't think I want to be buying into that weakness - will be better opportunities later.
Big institutions have been supporting Trump. And he needs them to win another term.

This dump is more likely another fund rebalancing or distributing BS. I'm not saying buying the dip now but when you see they start accumulating again, join their wave and ride it up to ATH.

After Trump wins, we all know. He will takes a dump and brings on crisis for the next Democrats President. 😄
 
1 - 20 of 117 Posts
Top